The prediction-market trading desk
Don’t just make a prediction.
Engineer
the trade.
Find the edge.Design the play.Manage it to settlement.
NYY @ BOS · NYYWorking
Edge+4¢
Entry0.44
Live0.44
P&L+$0.00
▸ edge found · working the positionIllustrative
One play, start to finish
Example · illustrative numbers
01 · FindThe edge.
Live price against fair value. Edge counted after fees.
02 · DesignThe play.
Side, band, stake, max loss. Locked before entry.
03 · ExecuteThe fill.
Sent, filled and receipted on the venue.
04 · ManageThe trade.
The floor holds. The upside rides. Settled from venue records.
FindDesignExecuteManage
NYY @ BOSMLBBOT 8 · NYY 4–3
NYY to win86¢
Fair value90¢
+4¢ edge
RECEIPTKALSHI
OrderBUY YES @ 86¢ · $5.00
Floormax loss $4.00
StatusFILLED
SideBack NYY
Band85–93¢
Stake$5
Max loss$4
Intended
Sent
Filled
Settled
P&L+$0.56
Floor held
Settled
Example, not a result
Playbooks for
every moment.
Start from a design built for the sport and the moment. Or build your own in the Studio.
MLB · late inningsLate Leader
Back the leader while the market still pays for hope.
MLB · late inningsHedgeback
Back the leader. The hedge caps the loss.
MLB · coin-flip gamesRide the Swings
Both sides in. Paid when the lead changes hands.
Kalshi + Polymarket USCross-Venue Lock
Opposite sides across venues that pay $1 a pair.
Tennis · after set 1Fav Dip
The favorite drops set 1. The market overreacts.
Tennis · best of 3Dog Hold
The underdog takes set 1. Hold the position.
The Studio · any sport+ Your own
Pick the sport, the moment and the trigger in its own clock. Set the floor. Arm it.
Guardrails,
not guesses.
Discipline runs under every order, watching or not. Here’s what that looks like.
Max loss, locked.
Set in dollars before entry and checked when you arm. When the game turns, the floor holds.
Example max loss−$4.00
Floor held
Rule 2 · the band
Band or bust.
No entry outside your price range. The play waits for its price.
Rule 3 · the record
Receipt for everything.
Every order reconciled against the venue’s own records.
RECEIPTKALSHI
PlayHedgeback · MLB
Intended✓
Sent✓
Filled @ 86¢$5.00
Hedge set✓
Floor−$4.00
Settled+$0.56
RECONCILED WITH VENUE ✓
EXAMPLE
Rule 4
One side per game.
No stacking positions against yourself.
BACK NYY ✓
+ BACK BOSBOS ✕ refused
Rule 5
Score moves. Stale orders die.
Resting orders pulled on a score change or a decided market.
NYY 4 – 34 BOS
BID BOS 38¢ · restingBID BOS 38¢ · cancelled
Rule 6
Blind? No trade.
Can’t read a venue, the desk stops. It never guesses.
Kalshilive
Polymarket USliveno data
DESK · armedDESK · paused
Sports and venues
MLBNFLNBANHLWNBACollege footballEPLMLSTennisNPB
MLBNFLNBANHLWNBACollege footballEPLMLSTennisNPB
InningsQuartersPeriodsMinutesSetsRunsPointsGoalsGames
InningsQuartersPeriodsMinutesSetsRunsPointsGoalsGames
MLB inningsNFL quartersCollege football quartersNBA quartersWNBA quartersNHL periodsSoccer minutesTennis setsNPB innings
KalshiPolymarket US
Two venues. One book. Every play speaks its sport’s clock.
Most tools help you place a trade. HedgeCollar helps you engineer it.
You’re trading a position, not picking a winner. Prediction markets give you contracts. HedgeCollar manages them like trades.
Don’t just predict.Engineer.
Desks open by invitation. Tell us who you are and we’ll get back to you.